SvalMIZ-26 Analysis — Arctic Observations

SvalMIZ-26 Campaign — Ensemble Analysis

Ensemble statistics across all 18 thermistor-string buoys deployed in the Svalbard marginal ice zone (April 2026). Shaded bands show ±1 σ across the buoy array at each hour.

Ice thickness (start) ≈ 0.50 m (all buoys)

Snow layer 10 cm assumed (skin T at snow surface) · k_snow = 0.31 W m⁻¹ K⁻¹

In-ice sensors used z = 0.00–0.48 m (z = 0 is ice surface)

Conductive flux F = k_ice × dT/dz · k_ice = 2.1 W m⁻¹ K⁻¹ · linear fit through in-ice sensors · positive = upward (ocean → atmosphere) · scale fixed −50 to +50 W m⁻²

Surface sensible flux H = ρ c_p C_H U (T_skin−T_air) · bulk aerodynamic approximation · U = 5 m s⁻¹ (assumed) · C_H = 1.5×10⁻³ · positive = upward (surface → atmosphere)

Sensors excluded z < 0 (snow / air sensors above ice surface)

Stefan law model dh/dt = max(T_f−T_air, 0) / (ρ_ice L (h/k_ice + h_snow/k_snow)) · forward Euler, hourly · T_f = −1.8 °C · driven by ensemble mean T_air · growth only (no melt)

Air & Skin Temperature — Ensemble Mean ± 1σ

Conductive Heat Flux Through Sea Ice — Ensemble Mean ± 1σ

Surface Sensible Heat Flux — Bulk Aerodynamic Approximation

Sea-Ice Growth — Modified Stefan Law (ensemble mean T_air forcing)

h_ice,0 = 0.50 m · h_snow = 0.10 m · growth only · red shading: T_air > T_f

SvalMIZ-26 Campaign — Ensemble Analysis

Air & Skin Temperature — Ensemble Mean ± 1σ

Conductive Heat Flux Through Sea Ice — Ensemble Mean ± 1σ

Surface Sensible Heat Flux — Bulk Aerodynamic Approximation

Sea-Ice Growth — Modified Stefan Law (ensemble mean Tair forcing)

Sea-Ice Growth — Modified Stefan Law (ensemble mean T_air forcing)